“Despite Djibouti’s protests and calls for intervention by the UN Security Council and the African Union, Eritrea so far seems unwilling to withdraw its troops and engage in talks aimed at a peaceful settlement. Rivalries in the Gulf are reverberating across the Horn of Africa, creating a complicated mosaic that could fall apart under pressure.Įthiopia and Djibouti are strategic allies and border tensions rose in June when Qatar removed 400 observers monitoring a ceasefire on the Red Sea island of Doumeira, claimed by both Eritrea and Djibouti, to protest the two countries’ support for Qatar’s Gulf adversaries, said the ICG commentary called “A Dangerous Gulf in the Horn: How the Inter-Arab Crisis is Fuelling Regional Tensions.” Unfortunately, the prospect of greater instability in the Horn is tragic but real.” Coordination of policy across them is hampered by the lack of appointees at senior levels where such coordination would take place. “For example, the US State Department divides this area into two different bureaus. Outsiders are similarly limited in their structures to address this cross-regional set of developments,” he said. Indeed, the AU is struggling to deal with such crises as South Sudan and Somalia. “The AU and the Arab League have very little interaction and no history of close cooperation around overlapping issues. The diplomatic potential for addressing the tensions and competing interests was limited, however, said Princeton Lyman, a former US special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan and now a senior adviser at the US Institute of Peace. “It is only a slight exaggeration to say that Saudi Arabia’s aggressive foreign policy and the resultant diplomatic crisis with Qatar have upset the balance of power among the countries of the Horn,” wrote Berouk Mesfin, a consultant with the Institute for Security Studies.
The potential for conflict in the Horn of Africa is worrying many analysts. Dubai risks damaging its status as a financial centre as a result of the trade boycott of Qatar, Standard Chartered bank warned. Saudi Arabia is leading a boycott of Qatar over allegations Doha supports Sunni Muslim extremists and Shia Muslim groups tied to Iran. Turkey in June sent additional soldiers to its military base in Qatar, whose side Ankara appears to have taken in the Gulf dispute. London- The Qatar crisis, which has seen Doha pitched against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, risks putting Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti on a path towards armed confrontation as the Horn of Africa comes under pressure to take sides in the inter-Arab rivalry, a commentary by the International Crisis Group (ICG) said.Ĭompetition among the Arab powers risks further destabilising Somalia, where Turkey is to open the largest military camp there, Somali Defence Minister Abdirashid Abdullahi Mohamed said in a statement in August.
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